PNN Electoral College Map – Based on WEIGHTING the skewed polls where available.
US Electoral Map
The above map gives Clinton 266 Electoral Votes and Trump 241.
The above map will continue to be updated. We are taking the polling data from various organizations and weighing (adjusting) it based on the average difference of Democrat versus Republican. For example, if a poll oversampled Democrats by 15% but that state has an average of only a 5% Democrat lead, then it will be adjusted down 10 points for Clinton.
You can click on any state and see how we arrived at calling it for Clinton or Trump.
A little about the process:
First, we compiled election data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 Presidential Elections.
For each state the Democrats have consistently won by 10 or more point we colored blue and for each state the Republicans have won by 10 or more points, we colored red. The remaining states began as purple and considered “in-play” to be changed by weighted polling data. This is how the map began:
Average 10 Point Plus Spread
The above map gives Clinton 179 Electoral Votes and Trump 143.
Then we gave the Republicans and Democrats all the other states they are very likely to win with only three seriously being in play: Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
All Likely Republican and Democrat
The above map gives Clinton 272 Electoral Votes and Trump 206. With this model, despite which way the other three states go, Clinton would win. This is basically where we are in America, as unfortunate as it may seem. Trump and the Republicans have a lot to overcome and in the top map, you can see that they have been doing just that.